Association For Strategic Culture and Research Foundation

Chronically impoverished and formerly civil war-torn Mozambique has the potential to become the world's fourth-largest natural gas exporter due to its vast offshore reserves in the extreme northeastern part of the country, but this Southern African state's ambitious plans are at risk of being derailed by the ever-intensifying Islamist-driven Hybrid War in that strategic corner of its territory, one which might ultimately require foreign military assistance to resolve after the national armed forces proved themselves incapable of containing this threat.

Africa is of natural interest to the leading political forces operating on the world stage. It has a huge territory, more than a billion people and natural resources, which, according to various estimates, make up 30-40% of all mineral reserves of the planet. At the same time, the level of development of the continent itself, at least in the last five hundred years, is significantly lower than the level of development of the surrounding European and Asian countries.

The high hopes that many had for a radical improvement of the situation in the Horn of Africa just a few short years ago have been shattered by a combination of internal and international conflicts centered on Ethiopia, but it might be premature to predict that the region won't ever recover since Prime Minister Abiy could drastically turn everything around once more should he have the political will to do so.

For decades now the political affairs of the Republic of Sudan have been a preoccupation of the U.S. State Department, Pentagon and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Prior to the partition of the country in 2011, Sudan was the largest geographic nation-state in Africa. The country of 50 million was becoming an emerging oil-producing state maintaining ties with both the West and the developing countries.

The previous stances of the UNSC concerning Arabs in general have usually been neutral and non-binding, but it seems incapable of confronting the language of power, arrogance and unilateral thinking. Therefore, it was expected that the council’s decision on the GERD crisis would call for the continuation of negotiations on the basis that none of the three conflicting parties would be harmed or that the situation would not create a general crisis in a region that the world sees as inflamed.

In recent decades, French foreign policy in Africa has been preoccupied with a jump-start of relations with the African nations, marked by a gradual curtailment of the Françafrique, a concept that provided for a direct military and political intervention in affairs of the French-speaking nations on the continent. France is now in search for a more balanced framework for interaction with the countries in the region.

As Africa’s economies and middle class continue to grow, there is a tremendous market for American consumer goods. Consumer and business spending in Africa is expected to top $6.6 trillion by 2030, up from $4 trillion in 2015. Again, not only China, but also nations in every other region of the world, are looking to fill the continent’s need for consumer goods.

Africa is experiencing a flowing tide of solidarity and self-strengthening, and the continent’s influence in international affairs continues to grow. It is now forging ahead with the development of free trade zones, accelerating industrialization and modernization, and heading towards the bright future envisioned in the AU’s Agenda 2063.

Compared to other recent periods, the continent has relatively fewer conflict situations at the dawn of 2022 and a few conflicts that are quite deadly. Several states—Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria and Somalia—are experiencing a range of violent conflicts that are leaving much civilian suffering in their wake. Many have tended to privilege military approaches to ending them. A change in strategy in Ethiopia and states in the Sahel could move them closer to peace.

After a nearly two decades old antagonistic relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea, it ended with a seemingly unexpected rapprochement between the two countries in July 2018.

The AU and the EU, both together and individually, must focus their efforts on the appropriate vehicles for attaining this goal. For its part, the AU will need to establish stronger institutions capable of nurturing economic growth and ensuring that its gains are widely shared. As recent coups in West Africa show, many African countries have a long way to go to establish good governance and thereby provide for their populations.