Association For Strategic Culture and Research Foundation

Every four years, US intelligence community analysts try to predict what is going to happen in the next 20 years. Although events regularly take place that show how difficult it is to make predictions for even the next five years (I’m talking about predictions, not plans), the US intelligence community continues putting together these reports using a set template.

A publicly available expert-level newsletter on Mozambique news reports and clippings from the middle of May predicts that France might launch a limited military intervention in northern Mozambique's Cabo Delgado Province in order to protect the offshore energy deposits of its national champion Total, which necessitates an analysis of such a move's strategic consequences if it does indeed come to pass.

Power exists to bolster interests. Under Western competitive ideology as opposed to Yoruba “Omoluabi” (character plus integrity imbued with a we sharing spirit) or Zulu “Ubuntu” (I am because you are spirit), it would be naïve to expect that granting a seat to the African Union would see to the protection of African interests.

This election marks a watershed moment in Russian national security policy, whose large international implications will not be immediately perceived by the Western strategic policy community which remains a prisoner of its own false narrative of Russia as a country which is sooner or later bound to fail.

Guinea has struggled with political instability and endemic corruption since its independence from France in 1958. Despite the country’s poor infrastructure, there is a significant foreign presence in Guinea. Countries are mostly competing for its mineral resources, such as gold, diamonds, bauxite, and iron ore. The United States, along with other foreign powers, vies for access to these resources and for the ability to influence the country’s government.

The creation of AUKUS is only further confirmation—as if more was needed—that the Biden administration intends to wage a new cold war in Asia with China as its target.

The objective is to subordinate Australia and Britain more tightly under Washington’s command for its war plan against China. Cutting the French out of the mix makes the line of command more direct for Washington.

The EU strategy currently appears to be pointed more towards building on established partnerships and developing new ones with like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific to ensure its role and growing presence in the Indo-Pacific region.

In September 2021, Alpha Conde — the octogenarian president of Guinea — was toppled by the special forces he created. It is the latest episode of political instability in the West African state with not only rich resources but also a history of military coups.

As Africa’s economies and middle class continue to grow, there is a tremendous market for American consumer goods. Consumer and business spending in Africa is expected to top $6.6 trillion by 2030, up from $4 trillion in 2015. Again, not only China, but also nations in every other region of the world, are looking to fill the continent’s need for consumer goods.

The United States and China both have skin in the APEC game. The setting in which they must deal is multilateral, and their dealings are on full display to all other 19 members. APEC is not a negotiating forum that delivers formal inter-state agreements or has legal supra-national authority. It gives equal voice to, and requires consensus among, all its members, large, small and middling. It is no accident that the Biden-Xi summit follows hard on the heels of APEC.

Geostrategic Interactions. Russia and China present distinct competitive threats to the United States around the globe. In many regions, Russia often poses the more immediate challenge, whereas the repercussions from Chinese economic investments manifest themselves subtly and will likely undermine U.S. strategic interests more gradually.